From Washingtonโs electoral calculus to the fragile calm in Gaza and the return of Turkish diplomacy in the Gulf, the theme of the week has been politics and power.
Each of these threads underscores a single reality: global politics are converging around transactional diplomacy and opportunistic deal-making, where peace, trade, and alliances are pursued less as ideals and more as leverage.
Now let's get into it.
โ Oliver, Co-Founder of GPD
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๐ What we're looking at this week
- U.S. midterms: Next year's midterms will decide whether the U.S. President can keep pursuing his heavy-handed, deal-first politics or if Washington reverts to institutional gridlock.
- The Middle East after Gaza: Having brokered a fragile truce in Gaza, Trump now expects Riyadh to make the final leap toward the Abrahamic Accords. Yet Israelโs hard right continues to test Saudi patience and the limits of Trumpโs transactional diplomacy.
- Turkey looks to the Gulf: Erdoฤanโs visits to Qatar, Kuwait and Oman signals Ankaraโs renewed pragmatism and open new avenues for cooperation in energy, defence, and infrastructure.
- The UN's dilemma in Libya: The UN mission in Libya is preparing a new political roadmap for Libya, but unless it synchronises security guarantees with political milestones, it risks becoming another procedural detour.
- U.S.-China rare earth rivalry: Washingtonโs growing interest in the DRCโs vast mineral reserves marks a pivot from peace-making as an end to peace-making as a tool for U.S. strategic advantage.
๐ธ Image of the week
๐บ๐ธ Why U.S. midterms will define Trumpโs second act
What happened: With the 2026 midterms less than a year away, Donald Trump faces a defining test. A Republican sweep would give him the mandate to expand his coercive, deal-based politics at home and abroad; a loss would curtail his ability to act unilaterally.
Why it matters: Trumpโs domestic strength determines how far he can push foreign policy, whether on Ukraine, Iran, or his trade wars. Europe is bracing for renewed pressure to โpay its share,โ while Gulf capitals see opportunity in Trumpโs selective disengagement.
What this means: Republicans already hold a narrow House majority, but historyโs โiron ruleโ says midterms cost around 25 seats. If they lose either chamber, Trumpโs focus could turn inward and away from the global stage.
