Gulf States and the Critical Minerals Race: From Deserts to Supply Chains

For the Gulf, whose oil has long shaped global energy markets, the pivot to critical minerals reflects both necessity and ambition. Each state is charting its own path, but the shared goal is unmistakable: to become indispensable players in securing the raw materials of the future.

Global Context: Beyond Oil, Into the Mineral Age

China’s weaponization of rare earths during the U.S.–China tariff war in early 2025 revealed the fragility of global supply chains. With Beijing still controlling over 80 percent of rare earth processing, diversifying access has become a top priority for the United States and Europe.

Traditional mining giants like Australia, Chile, and Canada remain central suppliers, but their lengthy approval processes slow new projects. This is where the Gulf’s edge lies: streamlined regulatory frameworks, state-backed capital, and geopolitical clout allow it to move faster and more flexibly than Western players.

The Gulf, however, enters a crowded field. Its strategies intersect not only with Western diversification efforts but also with China’s entrenched presence across Africa and Latin America. Whether Gulf capital complements or competes with Beijing will shape the trajectory of this race.

Saudi Arabia: Domestic First, Global Second

Saudi Arabia has made mining a cornerstone of its Vision 2030 diversification program. State-owned giant Ma’aden has accelerated exploration, issuing more than 20 permits in the first half of 2025. The government has paired this with tax incentives and streamlined licensing, creating an investment-friendly environment.