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Crude choices: India's sanction dilemma

New Delhi must carefully balance its partnership with the U.S. against its desire for cheap Russian oil.

Crude choices: India's sanction dilemma
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The United States, having shifted its focus to resolving the war in Ukraine, has sought to restrict the flow of money entering Russian coffers that fuels the conflict.

With Russia producing around 11 million barrels of crude oil per day, exports that form a significant share of its GDP, Washington views energy revenues as a central cog in Putin’s war machine.

As part of this effort, on October 23, 2025, the U.S. sanctioned two of Russia’s largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, along with their subsidiaries, while urging allies to comply. Yet, creating economic chokepoints for Moscow has had unintended consequences for key buyers of Russian crude.

India, the second-largest importer of Russian oil since 2022 and a long-time Russian partner, now faces the challenge of balancing economic pragmatism with strategic compliance.

From bargains to balancing

India is heavily reliant on oil imports, meeting over 85% of its demand from abroad. Historically, about two-thirds of that came from the Middle East, including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. But after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting Western sanctions, Russian oil became deeply discounted and economically attractive.

To stabilize domestic fuel prices and ensure steady supply, India ramped up its purchases of Russian crude between 2022 and 2025. This made Moscow its largest supplier, accounting for nearly 40% of total imports by 2023–24, even as India maintained ties with its traditional Middle Eastern partners.

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