The February 28 attack on Iran has escalated into a regional war affecting aviation, shipping and energy markets. Our latest briefings track three signals that will determine whether escalation stabilises or spirals into a global economic shock.
After the deadly Novi Sad collapse exposed systemic corruption, Serbiaโs largest protests in decades have refused to fade. Leaderless, decentralised and sustained despite aggressive repression, a generational revolt is testing the limits of Vuฤiฤ's power.
Strikes near Kuwait and Dubai, U.S. casualties, and threats to Gulf energy routes signal a dangerous widening of the U.S.โIsrael war on Iran. From Strait of Hormuz disruption to oil price shock and regional proxy escalation, the conflict is testing worst-case scenarios.
A coordinated Arab and Gulf diplomatic push failed to stop U.S. alignment with Israelโs war on Iran. With escalation underway, scenarios now range from short, high-intensity strikes to a prolonged regional conflict. The risk of state collapse and energy market shock is no longer theoretical.
Libyaโs dinar crisis is not a dollar shortage. It is the product of fiscal expansion, subsidy distortions and a widening gap between official and parallel markets. This piece breaks down the data behind the arbitrage machine shaping Libyaโs FX trajectory.
The country has been operating with separate and conflicting budgets for years, but a recent U.S. push is getting closer to achieving what many thought impossible.
