NORTH AFRICA DESK

Libya is increasing its engagement with foreign partners and becoming more proactive in its efforts to raise oil output in line with the National Oil Corporation's strategic vision.

Tehran has now placed Africa among its top foreign policy priorities, seeking more trade flows, geopolitical alignment, and military cooperation.

A second week of efforts to reach a peaceful solution to the ongoing tensions in Tripoli has failed. Neither of Libya’s rival groups have attempted serious reconciliation efforts until now, and within the past month, have depleted most mediators capable of helping.

Libya's oil and gas production has seen a gradual increase in recent months, reaching 1.24 million barrels per day (bpd) as of April 2024. However, the infrastructure remains vulnerable to various threats.

Despite widespread opposition to a potential deal, this new development brings back the Eni-led consortium to the fold and could draw major political battles in the coming weeks.

In this latest analysis piece, we delve deeper into recent Russian military activities in Libya, examining the context behind these developments. We will shed light on key events from the past few weeks and explore their potential impact on the ongoing Libyan power struggle.

Primarily focused on the energy and migration files, Giorgia Meloni’s Italian government has pursued a pragmatic approach toward Libya, whereby any interlocutor is appreciated as long as they can satisfy Italian interests.

Both Egypt and Turkey are determined to open a new chapter in their relations and act in cooperation on several files instead of seeing one another as rivals. This diplomatic trend opens new avenues for Libya and its accentuation throughout 2024 is likely to impact domestic politics.