NORTH AFRICA DESK

Despite the High National Elections Commission's (HNEC) preparations, a combination of financial hurdles, political infighting, and security concerns is casting a shadow over the electoral process.

To revive Libya’s political process, the Deputy Special Representative to the Secretary-General (DSRSG) of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) will have to be careful about several factors that could harm her mandate and help the country’s status quo thrive.

Libya is increasing its engagement with foreign partners and becoming more proactive in its efforts to raise oil output in line with the National Oil Corporation's strategic vision.

Tehran has now placed Africa among its top foreign policy priorities, seeking more trade flows, geopolitical alignment, and military cooperation.

A second week of efforts to reach a peaceful solution to the ongoing tensions in Tripoli has failed. Neither of Libya’s rival groups have attempted serious reconciliation efforts until now, and within the past month, have depleted most mediators capable of helping.

Libya's oil and gas production has seen a gradual increase in recent months, reaching 1.24 million barrels per day (bpd) as of April 2024. However, the infrastructure remains vulnerable to various threats.

Despite widespread opposition to a potential deal, this new development brings back the Eni-led consortium to the fold and could draw major political battles in the coming weeks.

In this latest analysis piece, we delve deeper into recent Russian military activities in Libya, examining the context behind these developments. We will shed light on key events from the past few weeks and explore their potential impact on the ongoing Libyan power struggle.