NORTH AFRICA DESK

This article examines three possible scenarios that Libya could be facing in the coming weeks, depending on whether it manages to achieve a breakthrough in its political process or whether it goes towards less promising paths.

The situation could deteriorate even further given that meeting the basic needs of refugees has become increasingly difficult due to a lack of funding –with serious implications for migration and security dynamics in Africa and beyond.

The situation at the Ras Ajdir border crossing remains western Libya’s most dangerous fault line with serious risks of escalating.

Earlier this month, Mohamed Aoun was said to be reinstated as Minister of Oil & Gas. However, he has been unable to assume his duties as the acting O&G Minister Khalifa Abdulsadek continues to occupy his seat.

Despite facing strong opposition from various Libyan entities, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) is pushing ahead with its decision to develop the NC7 gas field through an international consortium led by Italy’s energy giant ENI.

After conducting site visits and interviews with officials, diplomats, airport personnel, and security actors in both western and eastern Libya, our team has uncovered exclusive details about a new migration route that could be backed by a foreign actor to create disruptions ahead of U.S. elections.

Launched in March 2020 by the EU's Foreign Affairs Council and in response to recommendations from the Berlin Conference on Libya, Operation Irini aims to enforce arms embargo decisions following the armed conflict in Libya.

The reinstatement of Libya's Minister of Oil and Gas raises questions about transparency and governance within the country's hydrocarbons sector, especially as Libya prepares for its first major licensing round in over 25 years.