Why clashes look imminent for Libya’s capital

A second week of efforts to reach a peaceful solution to the ongoing tensions in Tripoli has failed, as clashes look imminent for Libya’s capital. Neither of Libya’s rival groups have attempted serious reconciliation efforts until now, and within the past month, have depleted western Libya from any possible mediators capable of helping as none managed to calm tensions. Some of these actors have warned that they have failed their mission and that there is no other choice now but to prioritise the safety of their respective districts within the capital, stating clearly that they will not accept conflict to spread into their territories.

The primary fault line in Tripoli can be simplified to be that of the Special Deterrence Forces (aka Rada) and the Stability Support Apparatus (SSA) specifically, and broadly as armed groups opposing or backing Dabaiba. The latter is in fact the one making it so difficult to resolve tensions between Rada and the SSA. For instance, while negotiations and efforts were ongoing to peacefully resolve the capital’s security tensions, Dabaiba had his Minister of Interior Emad al-Trabelsi indirectly threaten Rada this week during a parade held by his ministry. Naturally, this action led to Rada backtracking from any talks. The ministry of interior held a parade consisting of what the GNU Minister of State for Communications and Political Affairs, Walid al-Lafi stated to be 40,000 policemen, with observers bringing the number down to no more than 10,000 based on photos and videos published.