The new scramble for the Mediterranean

Greece will continue to seek access to offshore oil resources in the eastern Mediterranean but will fail to compete with Turkey due to Ankara’s established presence in Libya.

Turkey previously gained the rights to explore potential oil extraction sites off the eastern Libyan coast in 2019 from the UN-backed government in Tripoli, but was unable to fully act on them due to poor relations with the eastern-based Government of National Stability (GNS). Greece attempted to exploit this division but was rebuffed by the GNS due to recently improved relations between Turkey and the eastern authorities.

With diplomacy failing, Greece has seemingly moved ahead with resource exploration without approval from either the GNS or the Government of National Unity (GNU), and will likely struggle against a rare display of united Libyan opposition.

A closer look

Greece recently announced it would launch a public bidding round for resource exploration south of the islands of Crete, with some sections of the proposed area overlapping Libyan claimed territorial waters.

This was met with a rare condemnation from Libya’s rival governments, with the GNU Interior Ministry summoning the Greek ambassador and GNS Prime Minister Osama Hammad stating he was “surprised” by the Greek announcement.

Greece likely first attempted to gain approval from the eastern-based GNS but failed to make progress after multiple meetings between the Greek ambassador and GNS officials.

Turkey had previously laid claim to those areas through agreements with Tripoli-based authorities but was unable to make significant progress due to poor relations with eastern Libya.

However, increasing diplomatic, military, and trade ties between Turkey and the GNS over the past year have led House of Representatives (HoR) Speaker Agila Saleh to introduce legislation recognizing Turkish claims.

Shortly after Greece’s announcement, the Libyan National Oil Corporation signed an official memorandum of understanding with the Turkish Petroleum Corporation to cooperate in offshore oil exploration.

Going deeper

Greece’s recent unilateral action is ultimately the result of its concerns that Turkey will dominate control of oil resources in the eastern Mediterranean. The Greek government seemingly hoped to capitalize on Turkey’s previously poor relationship with the GNS, but its recent diplomatic efforts were too little, too late.

Turkey spent the past year improving its relations with eastern Libyan authorities, with these initiatives showing signs of success. In addition to the offshore exploration deal, Turkey and the GNS are likely in talks for possible future political and military agreements. 

Despite their setback, Greece will likely attempt to move forward with its own exploration, but will face the rare challenge of a united Libyan opposition. As political competition in the country intensifies, both the GNU and GNS will have greater incentive to maintain strong relations with Turkey, and will likely work to block Greece from infringing on Turkish efforts.

Greece’s attempt to proceed independently has also created unusual tensions that will be more difficult to repair, with the Libyan and Greek UN diplomats engaging in a vocal spat during a recent Security Council briefing.

Turkey has spent years building relationships with Libya’s various actors, and Greece’s limited recent diplomatic efforts will do little to compete with Ankara’s well-established presence in the country.