The Islamic Republic may not be changing its ideological underpinnings, but its range of action in the Middle East is now severely limited as the country feels besieged and its priority is to avert Israeli plans for destabilisation at home. In this context, Arab states have turned into pillars of diplomacy upon which Tehran is increasingly relying to prevent regional escalation.

In parallel, the Trump administration is bringing a naïve yet original perspective on the region which privileges peace and economic benefits over the pursuit of geopolitical blocs and reliance on U.S. military presence. Based on this, facilitating relative peace in the Middle East becomes Tehran’s token to build trust with the White House in view of securing a nuclear deal and counteracting Israeli threats.

Confidential

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