NORTH AFRICA DESK

Despite a minor blowout in July, Libya's NOC is steadily increasing oil production, reaching 1,276,344 barrels per day. With projections of 1.5 million barrels daily by mid-2025, the focus remains on reviving old wells and exploring new opportunities in resource-rich regions.

A U.S. delegation, led by AFRICOM leaders, engaged with key Libyan figures to enhance counterterrorism and military collaboration, aiming to counter Russian influence. As Libya's political landscape shifts, the U.S. seeks strategic partnerships to address complex security challenges.

For the second time in 2024, Libya hosted an international conference on migration.

The National Oil Corporation (NOC) says a new pipeline from the North Hamada oil field will help it meet short-term development targets, as it continues working towards the ambitious goal of bringing Libyan crude production to 1.5 million bpd by 2025 and 2 million bpd by 2027.

In spite of turbulent political times for Libya and its energy sector, there are positive developments regarding the signing of new contracts and the continuation of small-scale works to gradually increase the country’s oil output.

This article examines three possible scenarios that Libya could be facing in the coming weeks, depending on whether it manages to achieve a breakthrough in its political process or whether it goes towards less promising paths.

The situation could deteriorate even further given that meeting the basic needs of refugees has become increasingly difficult due to a lack of funding –with serious implications for migration and security dynamics in Africa and beyond.

The situation at the Ras Ajdir border crossing remains western Libya’s most dangerous fault line with serious risks of escalating.