LIBYA DESK

Libya's oil and gas production has seen a gradual increase in recent months, reaching 1.24 million barrels per day (bpd) as of April 2024. However, the infrastructure remains vulnerable to various threats.

Despite widespread opposition to a potential deal, this new development brings back the Eni-led consortium to the fold and could draw major political battles in the coming weeks.

In this latest analysis piece, we delve deeper into recent Russian military activities in Libya, examining the context behind these developments. We will shed light on key events from the past few weeks and explore their potential impact on the ongoing Libyan power struggle.

Primarily focused on the energy and migration files, Giorgia Meloni’s Italian government has pursued a pragmatic approach toward Libya, whereby any interlocutor is appreciated as long as they can satisfy Italian interests.

Both Egypt and Turkey are determined to open a new chapter in their relations and act in cooperation on several files instead of seeing one another as rivals. This diplomatic trend opens new avenues for Libya and its accentuation throughout 2024 is likely to impact domestic politics.

With every passing week, western Libya increasingly demonstrates how unsustainable the status quo is, as the facade of stability hangs on a thread.

This time, Gaddafi's comeback seems to have a military dimension to it, along with an impressive social component that makes this attempt considerably more compelling than any of his past failed attempts.

Slowly but surely, Libya seems to be creeping closer towards becoming the next competing ground for the U.S.-Russia rivalry.