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GOVERNMENT & DIPLOMACY

Field-informed geopolitical analysis trusted by embassies, ministries, and multilateral organisations.

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Israel’s strike on Iran and what comes next
Israel’s strike on Iran and what comes next

Israel’s latest strike on Iran marks a sharp escalation, killing key military commanders and damaging strategic assets. Iran’s response is unfolding in stages, aiming to restore deterrence without triggering full-scale war. This article considers the strategic implications and regional risks ahead.

Jun 13, 2025
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Beyond binary scenarios for Iran-U.S. relations
Beyond binary scenarios for Iran-U.S. relations

Trump's "deal or kneel" rhetoric frames Iran's future as a stark choice: compliance or chaos. Yet, all signs point to protracted negotiations and tactical maneuvers rather than swift resolutions or outright war.

May 13, 2025
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A quiet realignment in the Middle East
A quiet realignment in the Middle East

A quiet realignment in the Middle East sees Tehran, Arab states, and Washington converge on de-escalation amid shared interests. As Iran's threat perception shifts, Arab diplomacy grows crucial, while the Trump administration's pragmatic approach offers a path for regional stability and cooperation.

MIDDLE EAST DESK   -   May 13, 2025
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Tehran’s endgame in nuclear talks with Washington
Tehran’s endgame in nuclear talks with Washington

Tehran's cautious diplomacy signals a shift in U.S.-Iran relations, as President Pezeshkian seeks economic relief while avoiding past pitfalls.

IRAN DESK   -   Apr 25, 2025
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A new opening for the Levant
A digital collage of Middle Eastern and global political figures, including Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Donald Trump, Mohammed bin Zayed, Mohammed bin Salman, and others, standing on a chessboard.

Recent shifts in the Levant signal a transformative geopolitical landscape, marked by Bashar Assad's fall and Gulf states normalizing ties with Syria and Lebanon. As Iran retreats, regional powers must seize this moment to foster stability and collaboration, avoiding past mistakes.

MIDDLE EAST DESK   -   Jan 29, 2025
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Why Libya appears poised for change in 2025
Why Libya appears poised for change in 2025

Libya's trajectory in 2024 has been defined by a familiar narrative: a fractured nation grappling with the repercussions of a broken state, where elites compete over wealth and territorial control. The year ahead holds both the faintest glimmer of hope and the looming risk of renewed conflict.

LIBYA DESK   -   Dec 23, 2024
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Growing momentum for a new unified government in Libya
Growing momentum for a new unified government in Libya

The recent Cairo meeting between Libya's HoR and HCS has sparked renewed hope for a unified government, gaining support from various stakeholders. As Misrata pushes for political reconciliation, the UN emphasizes an inclusive electoral process, while distrust remains towards the current leadership.

LIBYA DESK   -   Aug 02, 2024
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Why the United States is stepping up engagement in a fragile Libya
Why the United States is stepping up engagement in a fragile Libya

A U.S. delegation, led by AFRICOM leaders, engaged with key Libyan figures to enhance counterterrorism and military collaboration, aiming to counter Russian influence. As Libya's political landscape shifts, the U.S. seeks strategic partnerships to address complex security challenges.

LIBYA DESK   -   Jul 24, 2024
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