LIBYA DESK
In May 2023, western Libyan actors were paying attention to Turkey’s electoral process. Key political players in the region, including al-Mishri and Dabaiba, are particularly supportive of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as the latter has not only proven to be a formidable backer through military assistance but also has been a sort of political model.
Seeing him replaced by a Kemalist rival who clearly laid out plans to disengage Turkey from worldwide military involvement would have been a wild card and would have furthered Tripoli’s tense security architecture. With Erdogan’s reelection, Dabaiba knows that one of his most important lines of support will not suddenly vanish.
Instead, Turkey is likely to maintain a large military and economic presence in Libya while simultaneously pursuing its politics of normalisation with key Arab actors like Egypt. In spite of tense relations, Dabaiba continues to call for Egyptian investments and has received high-level delegations to discuss the granting of visas to workers and the implementation of billions worth in construction projects signed by Egyptian companies.
Despite brewing chaos and the lack of a clear political roadmap, regional actors continue to see Libya as an important destination for investments. While international oil corporations continue to foray into new projects in Libya, Turkish, Egyptian, Tunisian and increasingly Chinese contractors view Libya’s stable oil revenues as a good enough reason to respond to infrastructure needs with large investments. Urban developments in both Tripoli and Benghazi - often bringing their own set of challenges such as forceful displacement - have as a result been booming.
Important projects such as the completion of Tripoli’s International Airport are well underway, with the Italian ambassador saying his country’s consortium of contractors will finish work next year. Several new flights and trading routes have been opened over recent months, and free zones such as Libya’s easternmost Imsaad coastal town are beginning to materialise and offer perspectives of economic development and job opportunities to local youth. However, the relative calm allowing Libya to pump and export hydrocarbons remains fragile, and many of these high-profile projects could turn into targets should conflict erupt once more.