Making sense of Iran’s latest Africa push

After committing much of its diplomatic efforts and political capital to normalize ties with Gulf Arab countries, Tehran has now placed Africa among its top foreign policy priorities, seeking more trade flows, geopolitical alignment, and military cooperation. This trend has created somewhat of a frenzy in Western circles which fear Iran might pursue “nefarious activities” in the region in conjunction with Russia, notably in the Sahel. These concerns are generally moot considering the low capabilities and inexperience of Tehran, but any Africa observer is to get used to increased engagement with the continent by Iran.

TL-DR

• Iran’s latest push in the region primarily reflects the Raisi administration’s objective of signaling that Iran is not isolated by drawing closer to non-Western partners, particularly countries seeking to exit pro-Western entanglements - hence its interest in the Sahel.
• Iran’s current and future economic prospects with the continent are dwarfed in comparison to its Middle East competitors and due to heavy US sanctions, Tehran does not have the financial weight to realize its ambitions. Moreover, the Sahel remains low on Tehran’s list of economic partners in Africa.
• In search of relevance, Tehran aims to exploit its few comparative advantages, notably in cheap military equipment, without significant coordination with Russia so far and as a means to showcase the effectiveness of its weaponry in low-stakes environments and its commitment to non-aligned states’ sovereignty.

A political entrypoint into the Sahel