Libya Political Risk Report (May 30)

Big-Picture Outlook

Protests against the Government of National Unity (GNU) continue, despite Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba’s efforts to present himself as in control of the situation. Political opposition to Dabaiba remains centered primarily in the House of Representatives, as the Presidential Council and High Council of State remain divided. Tensions in Tripoli are high, with ceasefire negotiations between the pro-Dabaiba 444th Brigade and the Rada Special Deterrence Forces seemingly failing. As the capital braces for a possible return to violence, the Libyan National Army in eastern Libya is positioning itself as a force of stability.

Key Highlights

• Tripoli residents protested in Martyrs’ square against the Government of National Unity (GNU), and called for the removal of Abdulhamid Dabaiba as Prime Minister. They were the largest protests in the city since the initial fighting between the 444th Brigade and Rada.
• The GNU had 444th Brigade soldiers and Ministry of Interior employees take part in “pro-GNU counter-protests” in Tripoli. The GNU also paid young men 500 dinars to take part in these counter-protests.
• House of Representatives (HoR) Speaker Agila Saleh presented to the chamber 14 potential candidates to lead a new transitional government.
• The Tripoli Supreme Court ruled that a lower appeals court had no jurisdiction over a legal challenge concerning the leadership of the High Council of State (HCS). Khalid al-Mishri, one of the contested leaders of the council, welcomed the ruling, declaring it officially confirms him as head of the body. Mohammed Takala, the other contested leader, also responded positively but argued that the ruling did not resolve the leadership crisis; instead, it sent the issue back from the courts to the HCS for internal resolution.
• The Libyan National Army (LNA) celebrated the 11th anniversary of “Operation Dignity” by hosting a large military parade. This was attended by Russian and Belarusian political delegations. 
• The HoR and a Belarusian delegation agreed to waive visa requirements for nationals of both countries. They also agreed to expand cooperation in a number of sectors including medicine, industry, and mining.

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