Libya Political Risk Report (June 13)

Big Picture Outlook

Dabaiba decided to hold off on his offensive after the ceasefire was broken this week, realizing his forces are unprepared to fight Rada. Dabaiba is now looking for more allies, further fueling tensions in western Libya. The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) is taking this moment to try to revive the Berlin Process, but expectations within the international community for its success are low. While Tripoli remains uncertain, the Libyan National Army (LNA) continues to expand its relations with Italy while being accused of interfering in the Sudanese Civil War.

Key Highlights

• The Rada Special Deterrence Forces launched a small offensive in Tripoli, retaking some headquarters it had lost to pro-Dabaiba forces. However, the ceasefire was reinstated after Rada handed back the bases.
• Presidential Council Chairman Mohammed al-Mnefi chaired a meeting of the Joint Security Room, involving the Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Interior, and Rada Special Deterrence Forces. All sides agreed to withdraw to their barracks and Al-Mnefi issued a ban on future movement.
• GNU Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba met with Misratan militia leaders, and announced an agreement to form a “Joint Security Room”.
• The German Foreign Ministry and the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) invited 20 nations to take part in a new Berlin Process next week.
• The Sudanese Armed Forces accused the Libyan National Army of attacking its forces along the Libyan-Sudanese border. The LNA denied the allegations and accused the Sudanese Army of fomenting unrest in the city of Kufra.
• LNA Chief of the Land Forces Saddam Haftar began a two day visit to Italy to meet with various Italian security officials.

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