Libya Political Risk Report (June 6)

Big Picture Outlook

The moment to finally avert a resumption of fighting in Tripoli appears to have passed, as Tripoli’s political actors double down. Negotiations between the Government of National Unity (GNU) Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba and the Rada Special Deterrence Forces have failed to gain traction, as both sides prepare for renewed violence. Dabaiba and his government continue to present a serious face as they propose multiple initiatives they cannot carry out. With the crisis escalating, Egypt is seeking to improve relations with Libya's other neighbors, as well as create more pressure for an intra-Libyan solution. In eastern Libya, the House of Representatives pushed through a massive spending bill, hoping to get what it can from Libya’s Central Bank before the uncertainty of violence envelops the capital.

Key Highlights

• Chief of the Turkish Intelligence Organization, İbrahim Kalın, held consultations between pro- and anti-Dabaiba factions in Tripoli but left the country shortly afterward
• Government of National Unity (GNU) Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba announced three new initiatives to “resolve the national impasse,” including a restructuring of the GNU, the foundation of a “national enquiry to reflect popular will,” and the establishment of new mechanisms to secure elections.
• The House of Representatives in Benghazi voted to approve a separate budget for the Reconstruction and Development Fund, amounting to 69 billion dinars over a period of three years. Members of Parliament initially rejected the budget proposal but later approved the measure after it was agreed that MPs could have a say in how funds were spent in their districts.
• The High National Election Commission (HNEC) announced it had finished a preliminary voter list for the second round of municipal elections. The HNEC stated it was close to publishing a final list and would then begin the process of distributing voter cards.
• Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba and Presidential Council Chairman Mohammed al-Mnefi announced the creation of a new security committee composed of the Ministries of Defense and Interior in Tripoli, which will seek to remove militias from the capital.

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