Libya Political Risk Report (June 20)

Big Picture Outlook

Tripoli returns back to its normal tensions after a brief moment of calm. The marriage of the Deputy Defense Minister and public fear of renewed clashes meant there was an absence of fighting as well as few protests. However, more aggressive actions from Dabaiba as well as increasing public anger over tensions in the capital will only further the crisis. In response, the United Nations is set to host a new Berlin process to try and build a new international consensus, while U.S. diplomacy recalibrates due to other crises in the region.

Key Highlights

• Government of National Unity (GNU) Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba gave a speech at the Ministry of Interior, declaring that the ministry was now solely in charge of “maintaining security in the capital”.
• GNU Minister of Interior Emad Trabelsi stated that the ministry does not have enough support for its work. 
• Special Advisor to the President of the United States Massad Boulos announced he would postpone his visit to Libya so as not to interfere with preparations for the upcoming Berlin Conference .
• The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) is preparing to host a renewed Berlin process in the German capital to try and build an international consensus on Libya.
• Contested High Council of State leader, Khalid al-Mishri, met with Libyan Attorney General Siddiq al-Sour.
• American Charge d’ Affairs for Libya Jeremy Berndt began a diplomatic visit to Tripoli, meeting with Presidential Council Chairman Mohammed al-Mnefi and National Oil Corporation Chairman Masoud Suleman.

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