Libya Political Risk Report (July 4)

Big Picture Outlook

Government of National Unity (GNU) Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba continues his efforts to gain allies in both Tripoli and Misrata, with mixed results. Soldiers and military equipment continue to move around the capital as tensions remain despite the ceasefire holding.

While the crisis in Tripoli drags, the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) is doing what it can to keep the economy afloat despite increasing spending by both of Libya’s rival governments. The Government of National Stability (GNS) takes up renewed negotiations with Belarus as GNS Prime Minister Osama Hammad makes his first foreign trip to the country.

Key Highlights

• GNU Minister of Finance Mohammed al-Hweij reversed a ruling that limited import and export transactions to only official CBL-controlled channels. CBL Governor Naji Issa issued a letter to al-Hweij, officially asking him to reimplement the rule, saying it would empower the parallel market. In response, al-Hweij reimplemented the ruling. 
• GNS Prime Minister Osama Hammad met with Belarus Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Karankevich in Minsk and signed multiple agreements that would see increased Belarusian investment in multiple Libyans sectors including, agriculture, industry, mining, and emergency services. Hammad also attended the opening  of a new GNS consulate in the Belarusian capital.
• The Surman Security Directorate claimed that Abdulmonem al-Marimi, a local activist and organizer of recent anti-GNU protests in Tripoli, was kidnapped by “unknown armed men” in the city. Protesters in Surman demanded his release and burned tires outside the Surman Security Directorate building.
• Presidential Council co-chairman Abdullah al-Lafi met with GNU Prime Minister Dabaiba and discussed “mechanisms for de-escalation” in the capital Tripoli.
• Egyptian President Abdelfattah al-Sisi held a meeting with Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Khalifa Haftar and discussed the necessity of forming a new Libyan government.

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