Libya Energy Insights (June 2025)

Market Outlook

Despite an outward appearance of calm, the situation in western Libya remains volatile, with rising tensions between rival militias and a fragile ceasefire on the verge of collapse. Government of National Unity (GNU) Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba's efforts to consolidate control may trigger further instability as local factions and external actors realign. The security risks, particularly around Tripoli continue to cast a shadow over investment and operations. As such, market outlooks should remain cautious and maintain heightened risk assessments.

Key Highlights

• Tripoli’s ceasefire is extremely fragile, with tensions between Dabaiba and the powerful Rada force threatening to erupt into open conflict despite temporary de-escalations.
• Public discontent is rising, with protest movements increasingly targeting energy infrastructure like Mellitah, using oil and gas as leverage to pressure both the GNU and its foreign allies.
• Libya’s oil production remains underwhelming, stuck at around 1.3–1.37 million bpd, far below the NOC’s ambitious goals of 1.5 million this year and 2 million by 2027.
• Budget constraints are severely limiting the sector, with the NOC receiving only a fraction of Libya’s foreign currency allocations and struggling to fund necessary infrastructure repairs and upgrades.
• Efforts to revive old wells and modernize infrastructure are ongoing but slow, with some progress from NOC subsidiaries like AGOCO and SOC.
• Turkey is tightening its grip on Libya’s offshore energy assets, securing new exploration deals with the NOC and winning rare unified support from both the GNU and eastern-based Government of National Stability (GNS).
• Turkey is successfully repositioning itself as a key energy and strategic partner for both eastern and western Libya, overshadowing European influence and building a durable long-term presence.

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Use the link below to download the full report in PDF format, covering the latest developments in Libya's oil and energy sectors.