Libya Energy Insights (July 2025)

Market Outlook

Libya’s energy market faces heightened political and institutional risks amid deepening rifts between Tripoli-based authorities, the NOC, and eastern factions. Governance breakdowns, mounting subsidy costs, and corruption scandals threaten momentum around a high-stakes international bidding round, while electricity blackouts and fuel shortages stoke public unrest.

While international investors may only see Libya’s promising potential and attractive alternative to Russian energy, the country retains risks that could deter foreign investment and disrupt operations down the line.

Key Highlights

• Minister of Oil Khalifa Abdulsadek’s position is increasingly at risk, as he faces mounting criticism from the NOC, the Libyan National Army (LNA), and other key stakeholders.
• Libya remains critically dependent on imported refined fuels, having allocated 20 billion dinars for 2025, thus putting a strain to debt levels.
• Libya’s first bid round in 17 years drew interest from over 40 major International Oil Corporations (IOC), showing investor appetite remains strong—though it hinges on improved governance and security.
• The NOC is targeting as much as 247,000 barrels per day production boost by 2026 with up to $6 billion in annual revenue potential, contingent on a long-delayed $3 billion development budget.
• Oil Minister Abdulsadek's 2 million barrels per day target by 2030 contradicts earlier NOC goals for 2027 — reflecting internal misalignment but a more realistic outlook.
• Despite dysfunction, Libya added 34,000 barrels per day in new capacity in the first half of 2025, thanks to technical expansions and minor field developments.
• However, mature field declines and delays in capital expenditure approvals offset gains, leading to a net production drop of around 29,000 barrels per day, which is only being recovered in late July with latest NOC data showing production back at 1.4 million barrels per day.
• The country’s fuel and electricity sectors remain in crisis, with nearly $600 million needed monthly for imports and rising risks of unrest.

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Use the link below to download the full report in PDF format, covering the latest developments in Libya's oil and energy sectors.