Libya as a competing ground for Russia and the United States

Following the resignation of SRSG Bathily and the return of an American at the helm of the UNSMIL as well as a politically and militarily proactive Russia, the stage is set for the two superpowers’ showdown. This article argues that competition between the two states is a futile endeavour for both Russia and the U.S. as it comes with more risk – not only for the two powers but also for Libya and the region as a whole. The two actors should refer back to history and have Libya remain a neutral ground as opposed to a theatre for their respective geopolitical interests.

Since the 2011 NATO-backed rebellion against Muammar Gaddafi, Russia and the U.S. have found themselves on opposite sides of the aisle in Libya. Russia abstained from voting in the UNSC resolutions against Libya in 2011, while the U.S. was dragged in by France and the UK. Ever since, the situation in Libya never went according to Washington’s plan. As opposed to a free and democratic Libya, the North African country after Gaddafi has been mired in conflict and became a hotbed for terrorists.

This situation further escalated when the U.S.-backed revolutionaries, who turned into anti-Western militants, went on to carry out an attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, resulting in the death of the U.S. ambassador. Since 2012, Benghazi became a very toxic topic utilised in internal political rivalries in the U.S., ultimately crippling Washington’s foreign policy towards Libya as no one wanted to touch the country. Russia, on the other hand, constantly utilised the NATO intervention of 2011 to demonstrate the failures and ‘ill-intent’ of the West, while positioning itself as a power that ‘respects’ the sovereignty of countries.

Fast forward 2014 and Haftar’s war against terrorism, Russia became involved via its ministry of defence and the private military contractor Wagner Group, by providing air defence systems, training, maintenance, and mining among other services. Russia became seen as a more flexible partner to deal with for the LNA as opposed to Western actors, whose support was always contingent on many regulations, strict requirements. and prescriptions. Taking advantage of the 2019 war that Haftar waged on Tripoli, Russia took advantage of the weakness of the LNA to further entrench itself via Wagner.

Haftar and Russia’s relations worsened following the LNA Commander in Chief’s refusal to sign the Moscow settlement in 2021 and the LNA’s efforts to kick Wagner out. The LNA was always serious about kicking Wagner out of Libya, fearing they may be used against them by Moscow or might empower rivals such as Saif al-Islam Gaddafi. For instance, Haftar offered on multiple occasions the removal of Wagner forces in exchange for that of Turkish forces. He even asked the U.S. on multiple occasions to act as guarantor of the process, but Washington never took this proposition too seriously. The death of Yevgeny Prigozhin has not diminished Wagner’s presence in Libya as it becomes formalised under the Russian ministry of defence.

Today, Russia is considerably more entrenched militarily in Libya after the improvement of its relations with the LNA. Although Haftar would prefer Western military support over Russia’s, he has found himself forced to deal with the Russians after doors were closed on him by the West. He also needs Russian hardware support to keep up militarily against the support Turkey is providing to the west of Libya.

Nowadays, Russia is establishing its ‘Africa Legion’, changing its once Wagner presence across the continent to that of the ministry of defence, with Libya playing a strategic role for this as it will act as the primary base as well as the launching ground into Africa. In response, the U.S. is allegedly providing training to armed groups in western Libya. When it comes to Libya, Russia has always been a step ahead of the West as well as a step ahead of Libyans themselves. Russia has for long reached the conclusion that Libya cannot and will not be unified any time soon.

Moscow believes that Libya has been stuck in a limbo ever since 2011, when the politicians who overthrew Gaddafi never had a plan for Libya’s future, and it believes that the same is true for today’s politicians. Moscow thinks that Libya’s current political class has not matured enough to be able to truly govern or organise the country’s affairs - nor do they have the will to do so any time soon.