Iranian politics between tracking “domestic traitors” and crystallising unity

It is no surprise that the focus on the ground in Iran is to not only find the saboteurs and infiltrators who facilitated Israel’s military campaign, but also anyone who expressed any positive or equivocal sentiment toward it.

People are perplexed by why intelligence services were unable to identify hostile movements prior to the attacks, and are afraid by their man-hunt which is broad-brush and typically repressive rather than targeted. 

Embracing national unity

Nonetheless, the political echelons have not called upon a gloomy era of repression for Iran. In his “victory speech”, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made no mention of internal enemies and rather pointed to national unity.

State TV, where divisive terms are not unheard of, made sure for instance to disassociate itself from negative words uttered by a guest against the discriminated Bahai religious community which the guest had accused of being Israeli agents. 

Despite the officially recognised death toll of 610 and nationwide destruction, the government spared no effort to keep daily life “business as usual” and a state of war was never officially announced.

This stance reflects the current administration’s acknowledgement that Iranians had absolutely no bandwidth for prolonged and devastating conflict and that maintaining an image of control was paramount to prevent chaos.

Post-war economics

Despite stretched funds, the government pledged to take charge of the reconstruction effort and contingency plans by the Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Oil, Ministry of Roads and Urban Development as well as Ministry of Agricultural Jihad were relatively successful in preventing large shortages. 

The stock market remained closed throughout the war and is now experiencing a mild bearish movement, while the currency market saw the Iranian Rial lose 15% of its value against the U.S. Dollar – which is not extraordinary volatility for Iran – before regaining its previous pre-war position.

Individual shopkeepers have certainly registered losses due to their closure but most companies and state offices had implemented work from home procedures. Fortunately, Israel’s attacks also stopped short of major hits on critical civilian infrastructure or major cyberattack campaigns. 

Digital blackouts and internet accessibility

Elected on promises of decreasing internet restrictions, the government had difficulty in safeguarding the internet.

Despite promises by government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani, the country was cut off from the world for several days with phone lines not reachable from abroad and a domestic intranet taking the place of the worldwide web.

Although newer restrictions are likely with more filtering (potentially renewing filters on WhatsApp), Iran’s security apparatus cannot hope to cut off more than 74 million internet users permanently and implement North Korea-like measures to blind foreign eyes or silence its own population. 

Pezeshkian’s continuous focus on political unity may shield him from overt criticism by the more hardline factions and the Supreme Leader may call upon such groups not to stir divisions at such a time.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has sought to defend previous indirect talks with the U.S., saying it was a way to reassure ourselves that goodwill does not exist in Washington. However, the current administration’s characterisation of Trump as a businessman with whom one can talk and continuous calls for diplomacy is likely to continue angering hardliners.

This is also true for a growing part of the population, who don’t see why Iran should deal with its aggressors and believe Trump 2.0 was misread by Pezeshkian’s team as “different” and no longer subservient to Israeli interests. 

Succession planning in the aftermath of conflict