How the death of Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin impacts Libya’s oil and gas sector

Following Wagner’s Prigozhin’s death, a cloud of uncertainty was cast on the group’s operations and future prospects in Libya. However, recent events are starting to provide a glimpse into the potential trajectory that Wagner’s influence and presence in Libya will take. In particular, the presence and future of Wagner fighters in Libya could have important ramifications for the country’s oil and gas sector.

A closer look

On August 22nd, a high-level Russian delegation, led by Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov, conducted a diplomatic mission in Benghazi to engage with Khalifa Haftar, the Commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA). The primary focus of their discussions centred on the prospective role of the Wagner Private Military Company within Libya and the broader African context. Additionally, they deliberated on the evolving relationship between Benghazi and Moscow. This visit, as previously elucidated in our premium reporting, sought to reaffirm the LNA's rapport with Moscow in the aftermath of Yevgeny Prigozhin's passing, while simultaneously charting a new trajectory for LNA-Kremlin ties.

Subsequently, the humanitarian crisis resulting from flooding in Derna prompted a visit by US Envoy Richard Norland and the Commander of AFRICOM to Benghazi, where they discussed aid initiatives. However, the matter of Wagner and Russia's involvement was also a key topic of conversation. Notably, within less than 48 hours of this meeting, Haftar made a decisive journey to Moscow, engaging in high-level talks with senior Russian officials and concluding his visit by meeting with President Vladimir Putin himself. The nature and repercussions of this visit have sparked widespread speculation, but one discernible fact is the increasing pressure being experienced by the LNA. Moscow appears poised to offer a substantial package to the LNA, though specific details remain elusive and subject to conjecture.

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