Halfway through 2024, elections remain a long-shot for Libya

In July 2023, the Libyan House of Representatives (HOR) enacted Law No. 20, transferring the authority to conduct municipal elections from the Central Committee for Local Elections to the HNEC. This move was seen as a significant step toward restoring local governance in a country where municipal authorities have held power since 2014 without electoral renewal. Since then, HNEC Chairman Emad Al-Sayeh has been at the forefront of a renewed electoral push in Libya. During a discussion session organised by Libya Desk in late February, Al-Sayeh outlined the measures taken by HNEC to hold elections across 97 municipalities.

However, the reality on the ground paints a more complex picture. According to Al-Sayeh, the HNEC had requested 80 million Libyan dinars from the Government of National Unity (GNU) to conduct the municipal elections in the first quarter of 2024. At the time, Sayeh said that “although the Prime Minister of GNU did not object to funding the municipal elections process, nothing has been done.” This has forced the HNEC to repeatedly postpone the start of the voter registration process, explaining that the registration process for municipal elections is different from the one used for national elections — for which over 2.8 million voters registered in 2021 — because municipal elections require proof of residency at the local level. Unsurprisingly perhaps, the GNU’s procrastination in responding to the HNEC’s request for election funding despite the availability of legal and procedural conditions suggests that the Tripoli government does not want these elections to take place.

Lukewarm international support for elections

International support has been vocal but slow in materialising. The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and other international actors have called on the GNU to release the necessary funds. The UK Permanent Representative to the UN termed the elections “a step in the right direction.”

However, tangible support remains limited. Since the start of the year, there has been limited funding for development and technical programs in Libya, and almost nothing has been done to raise public awareness about the HNEC’s plans or the issue of municipal elections.

The HNEC has complained about a lack of support from its international partners, in addition to the negligence of local partners such as local telecommunications companies and the Civil Registry Department, who have not been responsive to its requests due to pressure from the GNU that ordered institutions to not cooperate with HNEC. This sluggish pace of international aid, coupled with local partners' lack of responsiveness, has all but torpedoed the HNEC's efforts.

Why HNEC cannot afford to lose credibility

By attempting to conduct simultaneous municipal elections across the entirety of Libya, the HNEC wants to demonstrate to Libyans and the world that it is capable of carrying out its mandate in a country that has not witnessed any elections for a decade. It also wants to restore its credibility and shed the negative image that it acquired following the failure to hold national elections in December 2021 due to what it described as “force majeure.”

Political, financial, and security challenges facing Libya’s elections

However, the HNEC's plan faces political, financial, and security challenges. Political competition at both national and subnational levels has eroded public trust in the electoral process. In response, the HNEC is striving to maintain neutrality with both the eastern and western Libyan governments to mitigate political divisions. Financial disputes have further strained the HNEC's capacity to conduct voter registration drives and awareness campaigns. To address this, Al-Sayeh stated that the HNEC is prepared to hold the elections in three phases, sequencing them based on the size of municipalities to overcome potential resource constraints. Security is another critical challenge, prompting the HNEC to announce its plan to establish an independent central election security chamber at its headquarters, with sub-chambers in Tripoli, Benghazi, and Sebha, to ensure the safety of voters and election staff.

Gauging public interest in local elections

Despite a lack of reliable public opinion polls to gauge Libyans’ readiness to participate in municipal elections, the high registration rate for the 2021 national elections is a positive indicator. Talking to Libya Desk in February, Al-Sayeh expressed confidence in the technical readiness of the voter registration process and anticipated high turnout, reflecting a genuine public interest in participating in the democratic process. Additionally, local civil society organisations have begun voluntary activities in several municipalities, working in cooperation with the HNEC to promote electoral awareness. However, the ongoing struggle for power by the same political bodies at both legislative and executive levels, along with the retention of their representatives and allies in local government, poses a challenge. Citizens are also preoccupied with daily struggles, including liquidity shortages and rising prices due to the declining value of the dinar. These issues threaten to distract Libyans from exercising their citizenship rights, making their participation more coerced than voluntary.

Despite these challenges, Libyans deserve a chance to participate in the democratic process —if not at the national level, at the very least at the municipal level, which can have a huge impact on local service delivery and living standards. The role of the Libyan populace and the international community is crucial in this regard. Al-Sayeh has also underscored the need for media and civil society support to bolster the HNEC’s mission and amplify its message as public engagement and awareness are vital for high voter turnout, which in turn is essential to avoid repeating the legitimacy crisis that has fanned Libya’s chaos since 2014.

Looking ahead