Recent reports of Russian arms deliveries to Libya via Tobruk's port have sparked a flurry of speculation and raised serious concerns about Russia's growing involvement in the Libyan conflict. In this analysis piece, we delve deeper into recent Russian military activities in Libya, examining the context behind these developments. We will shed light on key events from the past few weeks and explore their potential impact on the ongoing Libyan power struggle.

The final days of Ramadan and the subsequent Eid al-Fitr holidays saw a significant escalation in Russia's military involvement in Libya. Large shipments of arms arrived at the eastern port city of Tobruk, delivered from Russia's naval base in Tartus, Syria. This development comes amidst a broader strategic shift by Moscow. Nearly a year ago, the Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organisation, staged a mutiny in Ukraine.

This led to a clash with the Russian military and reportedly, an attempt by the Wagner Group to march on Moscow itself. The exact details of the incident remain murky, but it marked a turning point. In the weeks leading to Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin's death, Russia's military began taking over Wagner Group operations in Libya and across Africa. This power shift was further signalled by Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov's frequent visits to Libya - at least four in the past year. These arms deliveries and the Wagner Group's sidelining suggest a more direct Russian military role in the Libyan conflict.

Sources on the ground in Tobruk said they witnessed the unloading of a significant arms shipment, including heavy armour (tanks and artillery), armoured vehicles (including personnel carriers), a mix of medium and small arms, advanced air defence systems, a command and control system, and large quantities of ammunition. These weapons were then transported westward by large trucks, raising crucial questions about their intended recipients.

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