Can regional war be averted as Iran-Israel conflict risks escalation?

A fragile opening for diplomacy between Iran, the U.S., and Europe is overshadowed by escalating violence and mistrust. While talks occur, Iran’s generals intensify missile strikes and prepare for broader conflict, seeing diplomacy as a potential trap. U.S. involvement will almost certainly trigger regional war, with Tehran readying economic and military responses, especially in the Gulf. Without major shifts, the path to de-escalation remains bleak.

Opening window for diplomacy but opposite winds may close it violently

As Iran’s foreign minister meets European counterparts this Friday in Geneva and the U.S. president gives two weeks to diplomacy, efforts to bring an immediate pause to conflict gain ground. Contact between the Iranian and American lead nuclear negotiators also occurred while regional capitals pleaded with Donald Trump not to attack Iran.

Nonetheless, none of these efforts have enough substance to guarantee reason prevails over dangerous escalation. U.S. and E3 clearly seek to use Iran’s position of weakness to strike quick points in future negotiations. This makes it far too arduous for Iranian diplomats to convince real leadership that ceasing hostilities now isn’t a show of weakness and won’t allow Israel to refresh before striking a restless Iran down the line again.

Whether Supreme Leader Khamenei or the remaining Revolutionary Guards, Iranian leadership prefers dying rather than being remembered as capitulators. There is no credence to Trump’s two-week deadline and even if Iranians know which U.S. officials could help them avert war (VP Vance), their lack of lobby in Washington is damning.

This is why more targeted private diplomacy and bolder public statements by Arab leaders is needed: “America Firsters” are the GCC’s best option to prevent regional war and concerns regarding their ability to soon deploy trillions into the U.S. economy need to be voiced publicly as a means of real pressure on Trump. Iran will use the OIC meeting this weekend to highlight urgency to Gulf nations.

U.S. non-involvement greatly raises likelihood of Iran striking status-quo 

Early Thursday morning, Iran demonstrated resolve to raise the ante by allowing itself a larger than usual missile strike (compared to recent days) hitting notably Tel Aviv’s financial hub in Ramat Gan. This points to a new dimension in Iran’s modus operandi of “appropriate retaliation” whereby Tehran hit Haifa’s refinery after its key oil depots in Tehran were hit or struck military and dual-use research facilities in urban areas as a response to Israeli strikes on strategic targets. 

Damaging the Diamond Exchange and other buildings in Ramat Gan may be retaliation for major disruptions caused by cyberattacks against Iranian banks and crypto exchanges, but it also means the goal is to exact enough economic pain to cause societal and political upheaval in Israel.