A new opening for the Levant

The Levant has experienced noticeable changes in the last few weeks, from Bashar Assad’s fall in Syria to Lebanon appointing a president after a two-year vacuum, and a potential end to the Israel-Hamas war with the adoption of a ceasefire in Gaza. These events not only open the way for reconstruction and a better future in the Levant but also reflect geopolitical changes that could potentially become transformative for the region.

Gulf countries, which had kept Syria and Lebanon at an arm’s length due to Iran’s influence there, have been quick to normalise ties with both countries and previous divides between Arab states are far less discernible regarding the region’s future. This new reality is also characterised by a strategic retreat of Iran and powerful voices, mainly from U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, pushing for a “new Middle East” that is more stable and less fragmented.

The retreat of the “Iranian threat”

From a geopolitical perspective, the recent events in the Levant can be summarised as Iran retreating from the region following successive failures, above all its inability to provide its allies within the “Resistance Axis” with substantive logistical and military aid when it mattered the most. This stance has allowed Tehran to avoid a full-blown regional conflict and keep the shadow of war away from its domestic population which has reeled from years of worsening living conditions due to U.S. sanctions. Nonetheless, this restraint has further bruised relations within the “Resistance Axis” and ultimately demonstrated the conceptual weaknesses of such a network of alliances with non-state armed groups.